The World Belongs to All

Some Things Reagan Got Wrong:

Trickle down economics:

Reagan believed that as the per capita gross domestic product of a country grows, in a free market economy, there will be a growth in income at all income levels in the society – the tide that lifts all boats, otherwise known as trickle down economics. In the period after World War II, up until the late sixties, the growth of gross domestic product corresponded to growth at all income levels. We were the economic engine that provided the goods that rebuilt the world after World War II, which helped our economy grow. World War II had destroyed the infrastructure of many countries, but not ours. Through the Marshall Plan, we also provided resources to help the other countries rebuild.

But, by the late sixties and early seventies, the baby boom generation was entering the work force, so the demand for jobs went up; a higher proportion of women began entering the work force, so the demand for jobs went up; and we started running a trade deficit – mainly due to our oil imports, because the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries cartel was able to raise world oil prices. And, the economies in Europe and Asia had recovered, so we no longer had the world markets that we had had before.

Our income growth started to stop with regard to personal median incomes. The median income for men was first greater than the median income for men in 2014, after adjusting for inflation, in 1969. From 1969 to 2014, male median income was on a roller coaster. (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/tables/time-series/historical-income-people/p02.xls). Female median income increased, though, by a factor of about 1.8, from 1969 to 2014. (In 2014, male median income was larger than female median income by a factor of about 1.6.). The increase in median household income from 1969 to 2014 would have been from more households having two breadwinners. At the same time, more of the labor of bringing up children became paid labor.

The gross domestic product increased by a factor of about 3.4 from 1969 to 2014, adjusted for inflation. (http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls). The population of those over age fifteen increased by about a factor of about 1.8. (http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk https://www.census.gov/popest/data/national/asrh/pre-1980/tables/PE-11-1969.pdf). So, there has been a lot of economic growth, but we have not been seeing economic growth trickling down to men and by just some to women – at least at the median.

Granted, taxes (federal, state, and local) and government spending as a proportion of gross domestic product have not come down over the last 35 years (http://taxfoundation.org/article/short-history-government-taxing-and-spending-united-states). Rather the percentages have fluctuated between about 25% to about 30% of gross domestic product for revenues and between about 30% to about 38% for expenditures.

The world will end in a nuclear fire:

From a show on the Public Broadcasting Network (I think) several years ago, Reagan feared that the prophecy that the world would end in fire referred to a nuclear holocaust. So Reagan worked to get rid of nuclear weapons (a laudable goal). More likely, our world will end in heat from the fires in our coal and natural gas driven steam turbines and our internal combustion engines, because of the greenhouse gasses we are putting into the atmosphere. Reagan, unfortunately, reversed the progress that Carter had made in moving us away from fossil fuels. We are years behind where we should be in dealing with climate change, because of Reagan (and others). And, because of Reagan, we have a generation of Republican politicians who refuse to acknowledge science and our, very good, understanding of what we are doing to our climate.

The problem is not not enough government, the problem is government:

When Reagan was 19 (1930) – the age near which our view of life is formed – the population of the United States was about 123 million, with about 41 people per square mile. By 2014, the population was about 319 million, with about 90 people per square mile, and we were far more urbanized. (Between 1930 and 2014, we added Alaska and Hawaii to our country, which added a lot of area – which diluted the population density.) Our population is getting denser (in more ways than one, given our lack of dealing with our – urgent – problems). Our nation is also a lot more urban now.

When masses of people live in close proximity, people have a lot of judgements of rights and wrongs. In Recovery International’s literature, Dr. Low writes and talks about how, in rights and wrongs, it takes an expert judge to decide who is right and who is wrong, and even then, the decision is just an opinion. Regulations help sort out the rights and wrongs.

We have seen recently in the economic expansion of China, the harm that business can do in a young and poorly regulated economy – from smog in the air to poisonous baby food. Our rules and regulations have grown out of similar problems in the past within our own country.

Even with our current businesses, our national lessons of smoking and climate change bear witness to the fact that big businesses are often unwilling to stop their businesses from producing in the face of harm resulting from the use of their product. We need to put limits on businesses, because business do not necessarily have a moral sense.

Protecting the natural world as our housing base, businesses, and farmland expand is also a real necessity. With more of us, we need to learn to live with the natural world and part of learning to live with the natural world is being regulated.

According to an op-ed by Robert Reich a few years ago, Republicans in Congress and their mission to cut taxes have starved the regulatory functions of our government. We have not had the funds to protect our people at the level necessary and legislated. Reich wrote that the result is the so-called “inefficiency” of government that Republicans like to say exists. Government agencies do not have the human-power to provide the services that are mandated by law. Republicans then blame government “inefficiency” for the poor or lack of or untimely services.

Desperation is a good motivator:

When Reagan was 19, the world was in, and near the beginning of, the Great Depression. Reagan had a good view of the effect of desperation on a society. In astrology, desperation is contained in one of the twelve houses – the eighth house. About one twelfth of our personal and communal lives should be about desperation. However, it is my belief that when a society deals with desperation on a mass scale, we get phenomena like Nazi Germany, the Taliban, and ISIS; all of which grew out of the aftermath of war. There is also the loss to society of the people who never recover after the desperate times – from those who commit suicide to those suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. Yes, desperation can be a motivator, but it can also be very destructive of a society. We need to do what we can to reduce the costs of desperation, as a society, while maintaining the motivation generated by desperation.

A Look at Clinton and Trump through Astrology

In this post, some simple astrological methods are used to look at the charts of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Before I go to the astrology, I will say a little about my feelings about Trump.

My view of Clinton is positive and my view of Trump is negative, so there is an inherent bias for Clinton in what follows.  I believe Trump has been working toward his goal of the presidency for a long time.  To me, he is unabashedly using the playbook used by Hitler when Hitler won elections in Germany in the 1930’s.  A saving grace – to America – might be that, like many sequels to many successful movies, Trump is following the form rather than the essence of what came before.  Hopefully he is not driven by the hate and paranoia of Hitler.

I suspect his television show was part of his strategy to win.  His main role on the series seemed to be to impose his will on people below him, and by extension, the viewing audience.  He seems to be trying to win this election through dominance as opposed to having anything to offer.  To me, it seems the Republicans have been gambling with the fascist game for many years now.  And they now have what they deserve.  

I think he appeals to many men and women who have played by the rules and do not feel like they have the power and respect they should.  Many men, like my husband, who supports Trump, worked their full working life, served in the military, and supported wives and children, and feel marginalized by the changing economic and demographic America.

Enough.  On to the astrology.  

The Birth Information

Hillary (Dianne Rodham) Clinton was born on October 26, 1947, at 8:02 AM CST, in Chicago, Illinois.  Donald John Trump was born on June 14, 1946, at 10:54 AM EDT, in Jamaica, New York (both times from http://astrodatabank.com).  Clinton’s birth time is suspect but Trump’s is rated as AA – from the birth certificate.

Vulcan, Cent, and the Rulers

In this post, I will use the point that I call Vulcan, which is the midpoint of the four asteroids Juno, Vesta, Ceres, and Pallas, over the shortest arc, as the ruler of Libra.  I will use a newer point that I call Cent, which is the closer of the two midpoints of the Centaurs Chiron and Pholus – the only two civil centaurs and the first two to be discovered as part of the class of centaurs, as the ruler of Virgo.  Both points are my own creations and Cent seems to explain a lot in my very Virgonian chart.  (It is interesting to note that Cent flips 180 degrees every 100 years or so.  The last time was around the beginning of Worl War II.)  The other rulers will be the regular modern rulers; Sun ruling Leo, Moon ruling Cancer, Mercury ruling Gemini, Venus ruling Taurus, Mars ruling Aries, Jupiter ruling Sagittarius, Saturn ruling Capricorn, Uranus ruling Aquarius, Neptune ruling Pisces, and Pluto ruling Scorpio.

Keywords

Here are the keywords I will be using:

House nouns

1, anger, awareness, appearance

2, pleasure, money, values

3, curiosity, communications, thoughts

4, security, home, patriotism

5, happiness, children, fun

6, anxiety, work, health

7, love, marriage, open enemies

8, terror, transformations, the occult

9, joy, beliefs, foreigners

10, fear, reputation, government

11, friendliness, goals, friends

12, sorrow, the hidden, compassion

Planet Verbs

Sun, to shine, to show off

Moon, to care, to be fickle

Mercury, to think, to be shallow

Venus, to feel, to make money

Mars, to compete, to get angry

Vulcan, to relate, to vacillate 

Jupiter, to expand, to pontificate

Saturn, to fear, to structure

Cent, to labor, to heal

Uranus, to befriend, to intuit

Neptune, to idealize, to confuse

Pluto, to investigate, to terrorize

Sign adjectives

Aries, pioneering, competitive

Taurus, pleasant, stubborn

Gemini, witty, flighty

Cancer, caring, moody

Leo, open, proud

Virgo, helpful, insecure

Libra, beautiful, wishy-washy

Scorpio, intense, deep

Sagittarius, adventurous, over-optimistic

Capricorn, disciplined, strict

Aquarius, friendly, detached

Pisces, compassionate, confused

The Natal Charts and Some Similarities 

Below are Clinton’s and Trump’s charts.  Clinton’s chart is first, then Trump’s.  The charts were created using the software Kepler.  I added the placements of Vulcan and Cent.  (An ephemeris for Vulcan and Cent can be found at http://vanwardstat.com/vulccent.8.5.16.rtf or http://vanwardstat.com/vulccent.8.5.16.pdf.  

Some similarities between the charts are, 1) both have the Moon – caring and being fickle – in the fourth house of patriotism, security , and the home, 2)  both were born under a gibbous moon, know for crossing the t’s and dotting the i’s – Clinton’s Moon had just entered the gibbous phase and Trump’s was just about to leave the gibbous phase, 3) both are eclipse babies – Clinton was born a  few weeks before a South Node solar eclipse and Trump was born a couple of hours before a South Node lunar eclipse, 4) both are highly nodal – Clinton’s Ascendant/Decendent axis is conjunct the nodes and Trump’s Sun/Moon opposition is conjunct the nodes,  5) both have Mars and Pluto in Leo – Clinton’s in the balsamic phase and Trump’s in the new phase, 5) both have Venus and Mars in water signs – they are both sensitive when it comes to feeling and competing.  One last thing, they are both inexperienced politicians – which makes things interesting.


Hemispheric Emphasis

For hemisphere emphasis, most of Clinton’s energy is focused outward.  She has 8 of the 12 planets (I will call the Sun, Moon, Pluto, Vulcan, and Cent planets, even though they are not, for simplicity’s sake.) above the horizon and 4 below.  Her Sun is above and Moon below.  On the east, she has 7 planets, on the west 5, so she is fairly balanced between being self directed and other directed.  Her Sun is on the east and her Moon, the west.

Trump also has the Sun in the southeast and the Moon in the northwest (east is to the left, north is to the bottom, west is to the right, and south is to the top in the chart of a horoscope).  Trump is not as balanced as Clinton.  He is a self directed person, with 9 of his 12 planets to the left of his chart, and 3 to the right.  Those planets to the right are to the north, so when he does get feedback from others, he reacts internally.  Trump is fairly well balanced between the internal and external worlds, with 7 planets to the south (external) and 5 to the north (internal).  Trump is lacking planets in the southwest.  He has no objective connection to the other.  His reactions to others are purely subjective.

The Suns and Nodes: Comments

I will say a little bit about their two Suns and the Nodes.  Trump’s Sun is in the 10th house, conjunct the North Node and Uranus, all in Gemini.  So, good timing, showing off, and intuiting are all linked together in a witty, flighty way in the area of fear, reputation, and government.  With the North Node in the 10th and the South Node in the 4th, he is very visible.  

Clinton’s Sun is in the 12th house in Scorpio and makes no conjunctions.  The planets Venus and Mars are also in the 12th house and conjunct the 1st house, Scorpio South Node.  All of the 12th house planets are approaching the South Node.  With the North Node being a point of connection, the South Node disconnection, and the 12th house being the house of the hidden, it is hard for Clinton to get noticed.  But intense compassion is a focus of her life.  She shines and shows off in the twelfth house.  With her South Node conjunct her Ascendent, her personality and appearance are unpopular, while with the North Node conjunct the 7th house cusp, Bill’s personality and appearance are very popular.  The South Node conjunct the ascendant is an aspect she shares with Obama.  He seems to be able to handle it, but look at how popular Michelle has been from the outset.  

I do not believe it is any coincidence that the Republicans have focused on Clinton’s money making and communicating (Venus and Mercury) or, Trump, her body (the Ascendant).  The South Node can be an Achilles heel.  Trump’s Achilles heel is in his caring and being fickle in the area of his home and patriotism, in an adventurous, over-optimistic way.

The Planets by Sign and House

I will now go through the charts planet by planet using the keywords.  

The Sun

Clinton has the Sun in Scorpio in the 12th house. She shines/shows off in the area of compassion and the hidden, in an intense, deep way.  Trump has the Sun in Gemini in the 10th house.  He shines/shows off in the area of reputation and government in a witty, flighty way.   

The Moon

Trump has the Moon in Sagittarius in the 4th house.  He cares/is fickle in the area of the home, patriotism, and security, in an adventurous, over-optimistic way.  Clinton has the Moon in Pisces in the 4th house.  Clinton cares/is fickle in the area of the home, patriotism, and security, in a compassionate, confused way. 

Mercury

Clinton has Mercury in Scorpio in the 12th house.  She thinks/is shallow in the area of the hidden and and compassion, in an intense, deep way.  Trump has Mercury in Cancer in the 11th house.  He thinks/is shallow in the area of goals and friends, in a caring, moody way.  

Venus

Trump has Venus in the Cancer in the 11th house.  He makes money/feels in the area of goals and friends, in a caring, moody way.  Clinton has Venus in Scorpio in the 12th house.  She makes money/feels in the area of the hidden and compassion, in an intense, deep way.

Mars

Clinton has Mars in Leo in the 9th house.  She competes/gets angry in the area of beliefs and foreigners, in an open, proud way.  Trump has Mars in Leo, too, in the 12th house.  He competes/gets angry in the area of the hidden and compassion, in an open, proud way.  

Vulcan

Trump has Vulcan in Capricorn in the 5th house.  He relates/vacillates in the area of children and fun, in a disciplined and strict way.  Clinton has Vulcan in Sagittarius in the first house.  She relates/vacillates in the area of appearance and awareness, in an adventurous, over-optimistic way.

Jupiter

Clinton has Jupiter in Sagittarius in the 1st house.  She expands/pontificates in the area of awareness and appearance, in an adventurous, over-optimistic way.  Trump has Jupiter in Libra in the 2nd house.  He expands/pontificates in the area of money and values in a beautiful, wishy-washy way. 

Saturn

Trump has Saturn in Cancer in the 11th house.  He fears/structures in the area of friends and goals in a caring, moody way.  Clinton has Saturn in Leo in the 9th house.  She fears/structures in the area of beliefs and foreigners, in an open, proud way.

Uranus

Clinton has Uranus in Gemini in the 8th house.  She befriends/intuits in the area of terror, transformations, and the occult, in a witty, flighty, way.  Trump has Uranus in Gemini in the 10th house.  He befriends/intuits in the area of reputation and government, in a witty, flighty way.  

Cent

Trump has Cent in Sagittarius in the 4th house.  He labors/heals in the area of home and patriotism, in an adventurous, over-optimistic way.  Clinton has Cent in Satgittarius on the cusp of the 2nd house – which is what I will delineate.  She labors/heals in the area of money and values, in an adventurous, over-optimistic way.

Neptune

Clinton has Neptune in Libra in the 11th house.  She idealizes/confuses in the area of friends and goals, in a beautiful, wishy-washy way.  Trump has Neptune in Libra in the 2nd house.  He idealizes/confuses in the area of money and values, in a beautiful, wishy-washy way.  

Pluto

Trump has Pluto in Leo in the 12th house.  He investigates/terrorizes in the area of the hidden and compassion, in an open, proud way.  Clinton has Pluto in Leo in the 9th house.  She investigates/terrorizes in the area of beliefs and the foreign, in an open, proud way.

The Houses by Ruler Stimulation

I will now go through the houses, where the house placement of the ruler of a house is the area stimulated by activity in the house.  

The 1st House

Clinton’s 1st house is ruled by Pluto, which is in the 9th house.  Her awareness and appearance stimulate her joy.  Trump’s first house is ruled by the Sun, which is in the 10th house.  His awareness and appearance stimulate his fears.  

The 2nd House

Trump’s  2nd house is ruled by Cent, which is in the 4th house.  His possessions and values stimulate his sense of security.  Clinton’s 2nd house is ruled by Jupiter, which is in the 1st house.  Her posessions and values stimulate her anger.  

The 3rd House

Clinton’s 3rd house is ruled by Saturn, which is in the 9th house.  Her thoughts and communications stimulate her joy.  Aquarius is intercepted in the 3rd house, and Uranus is in the 8th house.  On a more hidden level, her thoughts and communications stimulate her terror.  Trump’s 3rd house is ruled by Vulcan, which is in the 5th house.  His thoughts and communications stimulate his happiness.  

The 4th House

Trump’s 4th house is ruled by Pluto, which is in the 12th house.  His home and patriotism stimulate his sorrow.  Trump has Sagittarius intercepted in the 4th house, with Jupiter in the 2nd house.  On a more hidden level, his home and patriotism stimulates pleasure.  Clinton’s 4th house is ruled by Neptune, which is in the 11th house.  Her home and patriotism stimulate her friendliness.

The 5th House

Clinton’s 5th house is ruled by Mars, which is in her 9th house.  Children and fun stimulate her joy.  Trump’s 5th house is ruled by Saturn, which is in his 11th house.  Children and fun stimulate his friendliness.  

The 6th House

Trump’s 6th house is ruled by Uranus, which is in his 10th house.   Work and health stimulate his fear.  Clinton’s 6th house is ruled by Mars, which is in the 9th house.  Work and health stimulate her joy.

The 7th House

Clinton’s 7th house is ruled by Venus, which is in the 12th house.  Her marriage and open enemies stimulate her sorrow.  Trump’s 7th house is ruled by Uranus, which is in the 10th house.  His marriage and open enemies stimulate his fear.  

The 8th House

Trump’s 8th house is ruled by Neptune, which is on his 2nd house.  Transformations and the occult stimulate his pleasure. Clinton’s 8th house is ruled by Mercury, which is in the 12th house.  Transformations and the occult stimulate her sorrow.

The 9th House

Clinton’s 9th house is ruled by the Moon, which is in the 4th house.  Her beliefs and dealings with foreigners stimulate her sense of security.  Clinton has Leo intercepted in the 9th house.  The Sun rules Leo and is in the 12th house.  On a more hidden level, her beliefs and dealings with foreigners stimulate her sorrow.  Trump’s 9th house is ruled by Mars, which is in the 12th house.  His beliefs and dealings with foreigners stimulate his sorrow.  

The 10th House

Trump’s 10th house is ruled by Venus, which is in the 11th house.  His reputation and the government stimulate his friendliness.  Trump has Gemini intercepted in his 10th house.  Gemini is ruled by Mercury, which is in the 11th house.  On a more hidden level, his reputation and the government stimulate friendliness, too.  Clinton’s  10th house is ruled by Cent, which is essentially in her 2nd house.  Her reputation and the government stimulate her pleasure.

The 11th House

Clinton’s 11th house is ruled by Vulcan, which is in the 1st house.  Her friends and goals stimulate her anger.  Thrump’s 11th house is ruled by the Moon, which is in his 4th house.  His friends and goals stimulate his sense of security.  

The 12th House

Trump’s 12th house is ruled by the Sun, which is in the 10th house.  His secret enemies and the hidden stimulate his fear.  Clinton’s 12th house is ruled by Vulcan, which is in the 1st house.  Her secret enemies and the hidden stimulate her anger.

Conclusions

Clinton is more balanced than Trump.  Her focus in on the helpless.  But it is hard for her to get who she is out.  Trump’s focus is on those in authority.  And he is very visible. Both are patriotic, but patriotism is a negative for Trump.  For Clinton, her personality is a negative.  Diplomacy is a positive for Clinton, while professionalism is a positive for Trump,  I find Trump a blowhard.  To me, Clinton has worked all of her life for the helpless, Trump for himself.  

In Recovery International, Dr. Low writes about defeat after victory.  He thought that one of the techniques that Hitler used in making war was to let the Allies win and feel confident, then hit them hard when their guard was down.  Since Trump seems to be following Hitler, it would not surprise me if that is what Trump is up to.

Please vote for Clinton.

Some Comments on Joni Ernst

A month or so ago, the Fort Dodge Messenger published a letter to the editor that I had sent to them which supported Bruce Braley for Senate.  In the letter, I gave reasons for why I feel that Braley would be better for women than Joni Ernst.  A week or so later, a woman sent in a letter to the editor countering my letter.  This is my reply to her letter.

I had said that the right wing of the Republican Party had cynically been putting up successful women as candidates while at the same time working toward a society were men have the right to dominate.  To support my argument, I gave the odds of being a male in the Iowa Senate and House for the Democrats and the Republicans.  For the House, for Democrats the odds are about 1.5 to 1, while for the Republicans the odds are about 8 to 1.  The writer did not comment on that part of my letter.

I said that we need to have women represented in our governing bodies to represent our different life experiences.  She agreed and used the argument to support Ernst.  I am afraid that if Ernst is elected, she will turn back the clock on reproductive rights, will not support policies to financially protect women, will get rid of the ACA – which has given many more women good health insurance.

I went on to give some policies the Democrats had put through to help women – improvements to social security, equal pay for equal work, access to credit (brought to us by a Democratic House and Senate and President Ford – a Republican).  I also mentioned that most Democrats support reproductive rights and that Obama and his first Congress brought us free birth control.  Also, that the Democrats deal with the realities that women face. The writer did not address those comments, except the reality comment.

To end my letter, I wrote that the Democrats tend to base policy on the science of those who study society while the Republicans nominally base policy on fuzzy phrases like “unborn children”, “innocent life”, “big government”, and “tax and spend”.  The writer ignored “unborn children” and “innocent life” but had something to say about “big government” and “tax and spend”.

With regard to the realities that women face, she used the theme to criticize the Democrats.  First, she wrote women want jobs for themselves and others – and the Democrats are responsible for the slow recovery – this after the Republicans blocked the advice of economists who said we needed more spending to get the economy back on its feet.

Second, she wrote women want fiscal responsibility – not acknowledging that the Obama administration has been reducing the deficit consistently for several years now.  She wrote that tax and spend Democrats are responsible for the large increase in the national debt – not acknowledging that the debt comes from years of Democratic Houses refusing to cut services and Republican presidents refusing to raise taxes.

Also, we have the reality that fiscal responsibility for the federal government is different from fiscal responsibility for a household.  When a recession hits, government income goes down since fewer people are working and paying income tax and corporations are paying less income tax with lower profits.  At the same time, demand for government services, like unemployment payments and food stamps, goes up, so the government spends more and the deficit gets larger.  If the government had cut the deficit to zero in 2008, we would be in another Great Depression. It is a Republican big lie to say that the federal government operates like a business or household.

Third, she wrote women want to feel safe – she felt that terrorists are coming in from Mexico with our “porous” border.  We have had one successful terrorist event since 2001 and the terrorists were not illegals.  And the event was quite small.  Obama seems to be doing a good job protecting us from terrorist attacks.  And I have read that Obama has deported more illegals than any president before him.

She ended her letter by calling regulations, the NSA spying, and the harassment of tea party groups by the IRS (she probably does not remember Nixon) big government and by calling on voters to vote for Ernst.  I have already written a short blog on the need for regulations.  I, unlike many Democrats, am not up in arms against NSA spying because I do not think the spying is any more than the spying that businesses do on us through our internet connected world.  I speak with a little experience on this subject since I am a statistician somewhat following data mining.  As to the IRS scandal, I do not think we have the full story.  As I last knew, organizations that support political parties do not get tax exempt status. At least it is true for churches.  Maybe there was a Supreme Court ruling I missed.

Anyway, I feel Ernst would be a mistake and I support Braley.

Scared Fecesless

This is being brought out in the elections, but the wealthy people who are pouring money into Republican campaigns are scared fecesless about the future, at least that is my interpretation.  Why?

I read in our local newspaper at some point that Chuck Grassley said that the claim that climate change is real is just an attempt to change the American lifestyle and is not based on the realities of science – if I am paraphrasing him right.  I sent him an email asking him how Pacific islanders were supposed to style their lives.

Change is always hard.  People have money, lives, knowledge invested in the status quo.

Our society runs on energy – transportation moves the goods we buy as well as getting us to and from work and out and about buying things – we have come to depend on our houses and places of work having heating and cooling as the seasons change – our many appliances make life easier for us – we need electricity for lights, servers, computers, printers, copiers – our manufacturers need energy to produce goods – our farmers to plant and harvest.

 Whether all of this convenience and comfort is good for us is another question.  I will say nothing to that question here.

 A number of years ago, when I attended the Iowa Association for Energy Efficiency yearly convention – IAEE is mainly a trade organization – to which I belong – one of the speakers – who was from one of the military branches – gave a demonstration of a computer program that modelled ways of getting us through the future to an energy solution where fossil fuels had run out and were replaced by renewables – if I am remembering right.  The model indicated that all energy resources would be required to get us to that future point at our current standard of living.

I think that is why people with money are so scared.  They fear we will destroy our economy – that there are not solutions to our energy needs which maintain our lifestyle and which do no include the use of fossil fuels.

Models, whether they be climate models or economic models – and I am quite sure physical science is a heck of a lot more rigorous than economic science at this point in knowledge – are subject to the assumptions about and mathematical understanding of the processes being modelled.

There are many women and men who have been concerned about our energy future and our use of energy over many years now.

The Union of Concerned Scientists – which is an advocacy group that started at MIT – and to which I also belong – has done modelling of the use of renewables to supply our energy needs and has found – I believe it was for electrical demand but it may have been for total energy demand – that renewables will do the trick.

My experience with ideas and computer programming tells me that as an idea or program develops, newer and easier ways of approach become manifest.  I think we will find the same will be true with energy.  And the oiling of the ingenuity machine that government policies provide will help us get through this problem.  And, yes, there will be failures as well as successes.

Back in 1973, I was a senior in college – I was a physics major and was doing my senior thesis research on solar energy – I built two solar collectors and measured the amount of heat they absorbed over a few days.  I was inspired to do this topic after reading about alternative energy in the 1964 Proceedings of the United Nations Conference on New Sources of Energy: Solar Energy, Wind Power, and Geothermal Energy, Rome, 21-31 August 1961.  Many of the methods given in the proceedings are being developed now.  If you can find a copy, it’s worth reading.

Anyway, I fear climate change more than disruption from energy resource change, so I have voted Democratic.

Prognostication

I am an atheist.  I have been since age 14.  At 14, I felt science was explaining most of what had been explained by religion.  I am 63 now and still feel that way, although my personal view has changed somewhat.  I have experienced little yet that cannot be explained by conscious people (or animals) doing conscious things.

I have an interest in the arcane arts (astrology, numerology, palmistry, fortune telling) and feel there eventually will be a scientific understanding of these arts.  At the same time, I am mainly interested in what is rather than what is believed about what is.  I bring this up because I am going to say something about predictions of the future.

I am certain that there are people who can see the future.

Here is my political spiel:  Two predictions interest me with regard to climate change; the biblical prediction that the world will end by fire and the Edgar Cayce prediction that the map of the USA would shrink, with the coasts far inland from where the coasts are now.  Both predictions are consistent with the causes and consequences of climate change.

The majority of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activity are the result of combustion – fire.  As a result of the heating due to the greenhouse gases, the sea level will rise.  I have read predictions of a rise over centuries of as high as 45 feet.

From a show I saw on President Reagan, Reagan thought that the fire prediction was about the atomic bomb.  As president, he rejected the movement away from fossil fuel energy that Carter had started.  Thus, we are far behind where we should be with regard to energy and the world is really at great risk.

I am afraid Cayce’s coasts mean the Republicans will win control of our legislative and executive branches with the help of the energy industry and other industries that depend on the energy industry.  I am afraid the Republicans will do nothing about climate change.

One reads that predictions are not set in stone, that the future can change.  (And to change course based on a prediction can have the opposite consequence of that desired.  Witness Reagan.)  I do not know.  I hope futures can change.

Back to me: I am a scientist, with degrees in physics and statistics, and understand the physics behind the greenhouse effect.

Rules and Regulations

There are so many of us now.  Years ago, a man I was involved with complained about all the rules and regulations we have that we did not have in the past.  I thought for a moment and responded that there are more of us now.

If just a few of us do some things, for example driving a car or defecating, we are unlikely to create much harm.  But, the same action done by millions or billions of people can have catastrophic effects.  This is the reason for regulations.  Small acts by many produce large problems.  There are many more of us than in the past.