Lest You Think Another Maunder Minimum Will Get Us Out of Global Warming

A few days ago, I watched a video by Dr. Valentina Zharkova on solar cycles and

global warming, which I found on Quora (https://qr.ae/TWqUYc). Dr. Zharkova

has done research on solar cycles and has found that the sun has two

concurrent cycles occurring with slightly different periods. Her research

indicates the a long term solar activity (sunspot) minimum will start to occur in a

few years.

The Maunder minimum, which occurred in the 17th and 18th centuries, was an example

of such a sunspot minimum caused by solar cycles. During the Maunder minimum,

weather was unusually cold in Europe. She does not think that the cooling was due

mainly to decreased solar insolation from the low solar activity, but due to less cloud

cover. She said that, during times in which the two cycles indicate that solar activity

would be low over several years, the magnetic field of the sun decreases and more cosmic

rays get through to the earth. She thinks that the increase in cosmic rays breaks up the

cloud layers in the atmosphere, which results in more heat escaping the earth.

She brushed off the question about CO2 levels in a strange way, claiming we cannot

measure CO2 in the atmosphere, so CO2 level numbers are bogus. I trust that the

levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases measured by research agencies are

reasonable and that it is likely that the gases will offset the cooling

effect of decreased solar activity, but it is possible that decreased cloud cover

due to more cosmic rays will dominate the earth temperature system.

Here is a plot I did:

The plot shows the results of two multiple linear regressions, where the errors

are assumed to be independent (using the function lm() in R). The first

regression, in violet, fits sunspot numbers (from the Belgian Royal Observatory) and

the ENSO MEI (from NOAA) to the temperature anomaly (land and ocean from

Berkeley Earth) for the years from 1871 to 1920 and then projects the fit out to

2014. The second regression, in yellow, includes CO2 levels (based on data

taken at Mauna Loa and data estimated from Antarctic ice core samples – from

ESRL at NOAA and the CDIAC at DoE) and fits data from 1871 to 2014.

While the errors are not independent for the temperature anomaly data, I

remember (not necessarily correctly) that multiple linear regression gives

unbiased estimators of the coefficients on the regressors even if the errors are not

independent. From the plot, CO2 is a very important indicator of temperature anomaly.

Without the CO2 variable, the first model indicates that temperature anomaly does not

increase.

The results of the regressions is given below:

The first (violet) regression – sunspots and ENSO MEI (I included the sunspot

numbers in the model, even though the coefficient on the numbers is not

significant, because the variable is significant in the second regression.):

Call:
lm(formula = temp.anomaly.world.ts[259:858] ~ sunspot.numbers.ts[259:858] +
sa.enso.index.1871.2017.ts.shifted[1:600])
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.5567 -0.1088 0.0017 0.1102 0.6442
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -0.3088336 0.0106504 -28.997 <2e-16 ***
sunspot.numbers.ts[259:858] -0.0001395 0.0002191 -0.637 0.524
sa.enso.index.1871.2017.ts.shifted[1:600] 0.0776905 0.0070070 11.087 <2e-16 ***
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 0.1637 on 597 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.1811, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1784
F-statistic: 66.02 on 2 and 597 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

The second (yellow) regression – sunspots, ENSO MEI and CO2:

Call:lm(formula = temp.anomaly.world.ts[259:1968] ~ sunspot.numbers.ts[259:1968] +sa.enso.index.1871.2017.ts.shifted[1:1710] + sa.co2_monthly_all[259:1968])
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.58631 -0.10404 -0.00394 0.10653 0.70435
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -2.913e+00 4.446e-02 -65.519 < 2e-16 ***
sunspot.numbers.ts[259:1968] 4.440e-04 8.407e-05 5.282 1.44e-07 ***
sa.enso.index.1871.2017.ts.shifted[1:1710] 6.289e-02 4.170e-03 15.083 < 2e-16 ***
sa.co2_monthly_all[259:1968] 8.873e-03 1.391e-04 63.781 < 2e-16 ***
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 0.163 on 1706 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.7408, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7403
F-statistic: 1625 on 3 and 1706 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

The ENSO MEI and the CO2 levels were smoothed using a 12 month running

average to remove seasonal patterns. The temperature anomaly series is a

global series, not a local one. Both the ENSO MEI and the CO2 data were

based on two series. For the ENSO MEI, where the series overlapped, the

average of the two series was used. Also, the ENSO MEI series was measured at the

beginning of the month rather than in the middle of the month, so the series was

shifted to the right by one half month by using the mean of each two contiguous

values.

For the CO2 data, the Mauna Loa data is monthly – but specific to the locale.

The Law Dome ice core data from the Antarctic was yearly and local. I used the

seasonal pattern from the Mauna Loa data to create a monthly series from the

Law Dome series and then smoothed the combined series using a 12 month

running average to remove the seasonal pattern.

I recommend James Hansen’s book Storms of my Grandchildren for an

overview of global warming. His sister is married to a cousin of mine, but I have

never met him.

Trump’s Economy

Recently I posted somewhere a comment on the economy that Trump has been as skilled as Obama on the economy. I based the comment on the wages per hour of service providers and goods producers. Wages per hour began increasing around 2011 and have risen in a somewhat linear way since then. Now they are back to where they were in the early 1970’s. For most of the intermittent time, they were quite a bit lower.

I am wondering how the current retiring of the baby boomers is affecting the job market. We are an exceptionally large part of the population, and as we retire, wages should increase, since there are fewer workers in the labor force. When we started entering the labor force in the second half of the sixties, wages first rose, then dropped and stayed low until about nine years ago, as the first of the baby boomers started retiring. The baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964.

I do not feel comfortable enough with economics to hazard a guess as to how much of the increase in the wage rate is due to the skills of Obama and Trump and how much is due the slowly occurring retirement of a large bump in the population distribution.

The Electoral College

The Electoral College is an institution about which there is much controversy at this time.  After winning two elections, and losing the presidential races in the Electoral College, in the last 19 years, many Democrats are calling for abolishing the institution.  As a Democrat, I will give a reason why the Electoral College is a good thing and an option of how to make the college more fair.

We were introduced to the Electoral College in our high school government class.  Just about everyone in the class thought the popular vote should be used to determine the winner of a presidential race.  Our teacher gave a reason why the Electoral College would be preferable.  In a close election, vote counts can be questioned and it can take quite a long time to do recounts and accept a consensus on the vote.  We saw this in Florida in the Gore/Bush race.  The Supreme Court had to make the final decision.  Multiply that by 49 other states and elections could become mass chaos.  The Electoral College provides that a decision can be made without perfect counting.

I remember watching presidential election returns with my father when I was in high school in the 60’s.  My father was a political scientist.  I was shocked to find that, in most states, if a candidate won the popular vote in the state, all of the Electoral College electors of the state were expected to vote for that candidate.  I think this can be changed by prorating the number of electors for each candidate based on the popular vote.  The result would better reflect the will of the public.  I believe the decision of how to assign electors to candidates is up to each state, but, with the political will and a sense of fairness and justice, we as a country can make the change.

 

 

 

 

Trump’s Motivation from my Paranoid Mind

Trump is a smart person.  I think he knows that climate change is real.  He can afford to hire the best scientists investigate why, and probably has.  I watched him play the working class, religious people in this country in the election.  He continues to.   (I am closer to that working class than the upper middle class in terms of the people I have a connection to.)  I watched Trump let leaders in the conservative movement project onto him what they thought he stood for while he stayed detached.  My husband is a Trump support.  I think he feels that Trump is a man of the people.  Trump is a very rich person and has been all of his life.  His interest is money – when asked if he was racist, is children said he is not interested in race, just money.

So what is going on?  The special counsel Mueller released some information on Trump’s ties with the Russian business leaders.  Apparently, they are extensive and close.

Russia is a high latitude, almost totally landlocked country.  I remember from high school history that being landlocked has been a long time concern of Russia.  It is known that the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on earth (which is the cause of the polar vortex currently happening).  If the Arctic goes ice free, Russia may be able to open ports in the Arctic, though the weather perhaps would still be bad enough to preclude shipping.

Russia may also think that the warming of the climate would open the steppes to agriculture.

I think Trump is actively taking action to destabilize the economies of the world.  Maybe he thinks that the terror of economic depression will help his goals.  Maybe he really is racist, since the highest cost of climate change will be on the brown and black peoples of the world.  Maybe he is a being used the Russians to destroy the world economy in exchange in return for real estate deals. The Russians may want to take over the world, and may see this as a way.

From what I have seen of his behavior, he is more concerned about the realms of emotion and spirit than the realms of the physical and a quiet mind, where most of us live.  I have observed that some Catholics, and some people of other churches, make a game of bullying people on the psychic level – those who have beliefs they do not like. I think that these religious people think that because they can do this, their religion is true.  A simpler explanation for the psychic power is that all of us can influence the internal worlds of others like we can in the physical.  It does not require religion.  I believe Trump very consciously manipulated these types of energies over decades, to win the electoral college.  Trump probably only sees them as a road to power.

Putting Cent in the USA Charts

Here are the two charts that I looked at a few years ago, with the point Cent added.  Cent is the closer midpoint of the celestial centaurs Chiron and Pholus, the only two civil centaurs in Greek mythology.  I currently delineate Cent as the ruler of Virgo, and as the exalted ruler of Sagittarius.

 

IMG_1610

 

In the Constitution chart, Cent falls in Aries in the 5th house.  Cent provides the missing opposition in the Constitution chart.  Cent is sextile Pluto and Venus, semisquare the Moon, square Jupiter, and opposite Neptune.  Cent rules the Midheaven and the Part of Fortune, and is exalted ruler of the North Node.

With Cent in the 5th house, ruling the 10th house, we would be known for our entertainment industry, our ability to lead, our stock market, and our children.  With Cent in Aries, we would be innovative and pioneering in these areas.

With Cent sextile Pluto and Venus in the 3rd house, there is an aspect of opportunity between laboring in the area of creations and powering and making money from cars and other modes of local transportation, schools, neighborhoods and neighbors, and modes of communication.  With Cent semisquare the Moon in the 7th house, there is an energizing aspect of irritation between laboring in the area of creations and caring about  allies, open enemies, justice and lawsuits, and the state of marriages.

With Cent square Jupiter in the 8th house and opposite Neptune in the 11th house, conflicts would exist between criticizing our leaders, trusting our resourcefulness, and idealizing our belief in universal siblinghood.  Or between our sense of importance, our level of joint finances, and our political processes.   The Cent, Jupiter, and Neptune configuration is a T square, which is highly energetic and would focus our energy into the area of money, values, and possessions.

 

IMG_1609

In the Sibly chart, Cent was in Aries too, but in the 4th house.  Cent was trine the Ascendant, sextile Vulcan, semisquare the Moon, sextile Uranus, closely square the Sun, and opposite Saturn.  With Cent in Aries in the 4th house, we would labor in an innovative and pioneering way in our lands and homes.

With Cent trine the Sagittarius Ascendant, we would have an easy flow of energy between reasoning about our roots and our being aware of ourselves as free.  With Cent sextile Vulcan in the 3rd house, there would be opportunities to link our roots with our ideas through reasoning and negotiating.

With Cent semisquare the Moon in the 3rd house and square the Sun in the 7th house, there would be struggle between reasoning about patriotism, caring about our values, and leading in the area of marriage.   With Cent sextile Uranus in the 6th house, there would be opportunities to link reasoning about patriotism with radicalizing our work ethic.  With Cent opposite Saturn in the 10th house (and square the Sun – forming a T square), we would struggle with integrating our reasoning with our governing (and with our leading.)  The T square would focus our energy into our awareness, our appearance, and how others see us..

 

 

 

 

Birth of Christ

I thought I would put this up for Christmas.

The birth date of Christ is probably May 29, 7 BC, at around 4:37 AM GMT + 2, as discovered by astrologer Christine Arens. She searched the digital skies for many years to find the date and time.

On that day, Jupiter was within one minute of longitude of Saturn, both in (tropical) Pisces – the sign associated with the Jewish people. The day was also the day of the new moon.

One piece of support for this birth date is that future kings, at that time, were thought to be born on the new moon with the new moon rising on the ascendant. One place where the Sun and Moon were rising at the time of the new moon was Bethlehem. Astrologers would have seen the event coming up, which would explain why the wise men (astrologers) came searching for the king of the Jews.

Many of the other descriptions in the Bible of the birth are also supported by this birth date; for example, at the time of the new moon, the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction was a bright “star” high in the eastern sky.

At dawn in Bethlehem on that day the Sun and Moon were within one minute of longitude of each other and Jupiter and Saturn were also. (As a statistician, I guesstimated that the two conjunctions being that close at the same time occurs every few thousand years or so.)

This link opens to an article on Christine Aren’s discovery:
http://astrologynewsservice.com/news/was-jesus-a-gemini/

Eight Year Review

When I started this blog a bit over eight years ago, I was writing about my illness and the nutrition supplement approach to healing the illness. At the time I thought the reason the pharmaceutical industry was sabotaging those who support the nutritional approach was because supplements were a cheap approach from which they could not make money. Now I suspect that the treating of mental illness with supplements is actually a good deal more expensive than using prescription drugs in terms of the actual cost of making the medicines. My experience with psychotropic medicines and nutritional supplements makes me favor the nutritional approach rather than using medicine to shut down the mind.

My treatment now is a small amount of anti-psychotic and anti-depressant: a gluten, casein, and egg free diet; and prescribed supplements. I am doing better, especially if I stick to the diet, but still have some problem with the noise in my head – particularly if I eat food with casein. I have pretty much succeeded at eliminating gluten from my diet. If you want to try the nutritional approach, I advise that you work with a health care professional who has experience with the approach and knows what he or she is doing.

 

Black Unemployment

Here is a link to a variety of unemployment and employment statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln

After selecting the data at which to look (check the boxes to the left in the column of descriptions, then go to the bottom of the list and click on “retrieve data”), plotting the data is easy to do – just click the “include graphs” box and then the blue “go” circle, toward the top of the form. The plots show that the overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rates in the racial/ethnic subclasses have been going down in a mainly linear fashion since January of 2010 or 2011. Most of the fall since the recession was during Obama’s administration.

Trump is correct that the unemployment rate for Blacks or African/Americans is currently 5.9 (June 2018). For once, Trump was not lying.

At the middle of the first year of his administration, July 2017, the rate was 7.1, so in a year we have seen about a one point drop, which agrees with the yearly decreases under both Obama and Trump. Whether the levels are the lowest ever, I do not know, but I do not think Trump does either.

I chose to look at the data from Trump’s administration six months in because, with a new presidency, there is a period of adjustment as policies from the former administration are phased out and the policies of the new administration are put in place.